Trump’s base loves his immigration stance of zero tolerance. His approval ratings are 90 percent among Republicans.

He keeps repeating that the separation of families at the border is the fault of Democrats, and that he saved the day with his executive order requiring detained families to be kept together. The situation is so muddled—and the courts are likely to make it more inconclusive—that Trump just might get away with it, right?

Wrong. The 2018 midterm elections are going to be based on two factors—turnout, and the behavior of swing districts. Turnout among Trump’s base was already peaking in 2016, while turnout among core Democratic constituencies was depressed.

We can expect Democratic turnout among Latinos to go through the roof in 2018, with turnout among blacks, women, and young people also rising dramatically. Meanwhile, in well-educated suburban swing districts, Trump’s behavior is disgusting Republican voters, especially women.

Yes, the generic Republican vote for Congress has risen slightly, but it tends to bounce around. In the districts that matter, Democrats are still headed for a big win in November.